How are Governments and Businesses Making
Long-term Decisions in Uncertain Environments?

MISI-UiTM Distinguished Speaker Series
13 April 2016

“MISI was honored to have Dr. Chris Caplice of MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics present the inaugural talk in the MISI-UiTM Distinguished Speaker Series on April 13, 2016. Dr. Caplice shared the work completed under his leadership at MIT in helping government agencies and business firms develop long-range plans using Scenario Planning, to tame extreme uncertainty inherent in such planning decisions to facilitate decision making. Dr. Caplice described the limitations of forecasting in long-range planning, and described how his work is used by several departments of transportation in the United States for planning their transportation infrastructure. Dr. Shardul Phadnis of MISI joined Dr. Caplice to describe his own work in the U.S. in applying scenario planning to help business firms make strategic decisions, and answering questions from the audience after the talk. The event was attended by over 60 participants from the industry and the academia.”

“In launching the MISI-UiTM Distinguished Speaker Series, Prof. David Gonsalvez highlighted the series as another step towards strengthening the ties between MISI and UiTM, and regarded it to foster research collaboration between the two universities.”

“MISI warmly thanks Prof. Siti Sahak, Dr. Faiz Izwan, and Dr. Amina Kayani of UiTM for graciously hosting this event at UiTM’s Institute of Leadership & Development.”
DR SHARDUL PHADNIS

 
 
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Dr. Chris Caplice
Executive Director, MIT-CTL

Chris Caplice is the Executive Director of MIT’s Center for Transportation & Logistics. His research is in all aspects of freight transportation to include combinatorial procurement auctions, robust planning, portfolio management, performance metrics, and infrastructure design. Chris holds a Ph.D. in Transportation and Logistics Systems from MIT.

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Dr. Shardul Phadnis
Director of Research, MISI

Shardul Phadnis is the Director of Research at MISI. His research falls in the area of strategic decision making and long-range planning, and contributes to the scholarly domains of managerial cognition, dynamic capabilities, scenario planning, and supply chain strategy. Shardul holds a Ph.D. in Engineering Systems from MIT.

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How are Governments and Businesses Making
Long-term Decisions in Uncertain Environments?

During the years 2010 to 2011, Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for Transportation & Logistics (MIT-CTL) designed, field-tested (in six workshops), and delivered a set of four scenarios and an elaborate process for using them to the Federal Highway Administration of the United States, as part of the US$1 million Future Freight Flows project. The scenarios and the process were designed to be used by any transportation planning agency in the U.S. to decide its long-range investments in its freight transportation infrastructure. They have already been employed by a few states in developing their current long-range plans. In a separate project sponsored by a large global beverage company, MIT-CTL used scenario planning to help the company’s executives identify strategic initiatives for its supply chain functions, and designed a “playbook” that dynamically evaluates the usefulness of each strategic initiative according to the changes in the business environment.

Dr. Chris Caplice led both projects as the principal investigator. Dr. Shardul Phadnis was a key member of both project teams. In this talk, Dr. Caplice, joined by Dr. Phadnis, described the two projects.